Negative gearing & CGT discount, a live policy tracker

Every quarter someone in Canberra floats a change to negative gearing or the capital gains tax discount, and every quarter the property investment forums spiral. We track the actual policy signals from Treasury, the ATO and the parliamentary record so investors can act on evidence, not headlines. This page is refreshed as material movements occur.

What is actually in place today

Nothing has changed in law. Negative gearing continues to allow investors to deduct net rental losses against other income at their marginal rate. The 50% CGT discount continues to apply to assets held longer than 12 months by individuals, trusts and (at 33.3%) super funds. Neither is grandfathered because neither has been touched.

The signals that actually matter

• A Senate Economics Committee report in March 2026 described the CGT discount as “poorly targeted” and recommended a review. Recommendations do not change law.
• The Treasurer has repeatedly declined to rule out negative gearing changes in press conferences through late 2025 and 2026, while also declining to commit to them.
• Treasury modelling on housing tax settings has been reported (not released), triggering the standard Canberra ritual of ministers being asked to comment on documents they have not tabled.
• The Greens continue to push for full abolition of both concessions in confidence-and-supply negotiations, most recently ahead of MYEFO.

Three scenarios, modelled honestly

The three proposals in circulation are (1) grandfather existing investors and remove negative gearing for new purchases, (2) restrict negative gearing to new-build dwellings only, and (3) reduce the CGT discount from 50% to 25% or 33%. We modelled each against a typical $750,000 IP with $650,000 borrowings, $32,000 rental income, $58,000 outgoings, held ten years at 5% growth.

The takeaway isn’t “property still wins.” It’s that scenario 3 (a CGT discount cut) hurts long-term investors more than scenario 1, and that removing negative gearing for new purchases only meaningfully affects negatively-geared assets in the early years, not the whole portfolio.

What we’re doing with client plans right now

• Stress-testing every recommendation without negative gearing (as we already do), so tax treatment is upside, not oxygen.
• Prioritising acquisitions that also work on cashflow after a CGT discount cut, not just on projected sale gains.
• Reviewing ownership structure (own name / trust / SMSF) for any change that shifts the tax cost, since discretionary trusts and SMSFs are exposed differently.
• Not front-running a policy that doesn’t exist. Buying “before grandfathering” is a slogan, not a strategy.